Complicated vs. Complex - Part Two

Back again for another short journey into the minds of automobile engineers. My son recently returned for his Junior year of undergraduate study. This is the first time he has brought his car along. We thought he should keep the spare key and fob for the remote entry in his apartment. But just in case something should happen, I wanted a key to have back home. So we stopped by the local Ford dealer. A friendly person in the parts depaqrtment asked if we had the car with us. It is a 2002 Ford Escape. No, it was back in the college parking lot. We were told that these cars used a "smart" key that had to be programmed to the exact vehicle. It wasn't clear if this was part of a theft-protection scheme, or served some other purpose. But it was clear that the car knew if its properly programmed key was in the lock or not. Moreover, getting a new key cut and programmed would cost $106! We looked at the key closely and sure enough, there was a small removeable part that presumably gave access to the programmable memory chip inside the key.

We decided that it was not worth the time or money to have a third key made.

Cost of a key to get into my home - a few bucks at the hardware store.

Cost of an allegedly "smart" key for the Ford - $106.

The value of simplicity in design and manufacturing - priceless.

Iraq and the Great Red Spot

With increasing frequency, the news reports tragic losses in Iraq. We tend to focus on the injuries and deaths of Americans, but of course, the suffering of the Iraqi people is many times greater. Public support for the war has significantly diminished.

Without arguing the politics of the conflict, it appears that the overwhelming majority of military and other analysts believe that this is a war we can not win. Devising an exit strategy has become problematic as well. There is little doubt that when the U.S. troops withdraw, Iraq will become embroiled in chaos and bloodshed. If we know this, and if we can not prevent this, what should we do?

What would be our objective in Iraq after we withdraw our forces? That seems comparatively clear. We hope for a stable government and society in Iraq. We hope that those inside Iraq who would do us harm, stay where they are.

Perhaps our exit strategy can be shaped by a look at the massive planet Jupiter. Its atmosphere is a constant swirl of enormous complex whorls and turbulent storms. Yet amidst the chaos there are clear and recognizable patterns of order. One feature known to observers for centuries, is the Great Red Spot on the surface of Jupiter. At its boundary, the Spot is surrounded by smaller vortices that spin and interact with it. But the vast Spot remains relatively calm. The chaos and conflict at the edges seems to act in defining the boundary, and containing the Great Spot from spreading more.

In a post-war Iraq, perhaps U.S. force could be deployed a the boundaries. Both military and diplomatic pressure might work to constrain the Great Red Stain that is sure to flow in Iraq. Perhaps we can influence the turbulence there to stay largely within itself. The red spot that engulfs Iraq may persist as long as the Great Spot on Jupiter. With luck, some form of order will prevail over chaos, and both the U.S. and Iraq can grow healthy again.

cmplxty