Iraq and the Great Red Spot

With increasing frequency, the news reports tragic losses in Iraq. We tend to focus on the injuries and deaths of Americans, but of course, the suffering of the Iraqi people is many times greater. Public support for the war has significantly diminished.

Without arguing the politics of the conflict, it appears that the overwhelming majority of military and other analysts believe that this is a war we can not win. Devising an exit strategy has become problematic as well. There is little doubt that when the U.S. troops withdraw, Iraq will become embroiled in chaos and bloodshed. If we know this, and if we can not prevent this, what should we do?

What would be our objective in Iraq after we withdraw our forces? That seems comparatively clear. We hope for a stable government and society in Iraq. We hope that those inside Iraq who would do us harm, stay where they are.

Perhaps our exit strategy can be shaped by a look at the massive planet Jupiter. Its atmosphere is a constant swirl of enormous complex whorls and turbulent storms. Yet amidst the chaos there are clear and recognizable patterns of order. One feature known to observers for centuries, is the Great Red Spot on the surface of Jupiter. At its boundary, the Spot is surrounded by smaller vortices that spin and interact with it. But the vast Spot remains relatively calm. The chaos and conflict at the edges seems to act in defining the boundary, and containing the Great Spot from spreading more.

In a post-war Iraq, perhaps U.S. force could be deployed a the boundaries. Both military and diplomatic pressure might work to constrain the Great Red Stain that is sure to flow in Iraq. Perhaps we can influence the turbulence there to stay largely within itself. The red spot that engulfs Iraq may persist as long as the Great Spot on Jupiter. With luck, some form of order will prevail over chaos, and both the U.S. and Iraq can grow healthy again.

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